All xG and SCA/GCA statistics credit to fbref.com
Brighton win the xG battle 1.7 to 1.6, but lose 6-1 in an uncharacteristic performance:
- Ollie Watkins grabs a hat trick on just 0.8 xG, a clear outlier in the opposite direction. His xG/90 mins sits at 0.52 – between Jarrod Bowen and Cody Gakpo. This 1 game has seen his overdue positive regression complete.
- Jacob Ramsey is rejoining a Villa squad that arguably doesn’t even need him. He has MID1 potential if he locks down an attacking role in the starting XI. He should overtake the left flank from Zaniolo, assuming the Diaby and Kamara injuries aren’t serious as Emery conveyed.
- Given a lack of squad depth and extra European football, De Zerbi has resorted to halftime subs when things do downhill. Needless to say, we can’t have confidence in Ferguson, Welbeck, or Pedro while this trend continues.
A humbling weekend for Manchester supporters:
- Wolves limited Erling Haaland to only 14 touches. This lead to other players like Doku and Foden trying to pick up the pieces, with 13 SCAs combined. This low-block game script is very common in games where City are heavy favorites. We can’t depend on solid floors for anyone really, but performances like this are more often a blip on the radar for midfielders/attackers.
- If you were ever looking for a buy-low window on a United player, after a loss to a decimated Palace side at home is as good a time as any. Mason Mount himself led the Red Devils in SCAs during his 80 minutes (7), and seems to be one of the best values for your money. With the offensive struggles, Diogo Dalot seems to be a good bet for solid minutes and involvement up the field during plus matchups only.
- In what shaped up to be the most entertaining match of the weekend, and was for more reasons than one, things weren’t the same after the 26th minute red card to Curtis Jones. Angeball depends on the opponent attacking so they can be caught out in defense. With a quality Liverpool defense in a low block, it’s no surprise they struggled to score. Liverpool were playing without a recognized forward after Jota exited the game. Don’t try to extract too much from this game for fantasy purposes, just act like it never happened.
This Week's Targets 🎯
James Garner || Everton (Midfielder) || 39% Rostered
The former United man has had a bright start to the season, and has looked to be one of the main creative options for Everton averaging 8.9 PP90 coming into Week 7. James Garner has proven the ability to play the full 90 minutes, which is not so common amongst waiver wire options in the year 2023. Add in the fact that he took 3/3 corners last match in a team that should be fairly effective from service, on top of 4 shots, and he’s well worth an add with a relatively average schedule approaching.
Next 5 matches: BOU, @LIV, @WHU, BHA, @CRY
The Claim: 5-10% of your FAB, 3rd spot rolling waiver
Garner is one of the few players that might still be flying under the radar, and can be a reliable producer for your team at a time where many managers are struggling to cope with injuries/red cards. I feel safe spending a little higher on him because of his apparent security in the starting XI thus far in the campaign.
Ryan Gravenberch || Liverpool (Midfielder) || 39% Rostered
Ryan Gravenberch joined Liverpool this summer for 40M, and has been used regularly as a depth piece. With Curtis Jones out of the lineup for at least 1 game, we could see him break the starting XI and offer his box-to-box presence in a team that’s begun to use its central midfielders more than they have since the Gerrard era.
Next 5 matches: @BHA, EVE, NOT, @LUT, BRF
The Claim: 0-5% of your FAB budget, 4th spot rolling waiver
The biggest risk is that Wataru Endo could slot in for Curtis Jones, but Gravenberch profiles most similarly to Jones’ skillset. Chances are if he’s not owned in your league, you shouldn’t have to spend big to get him now. I would project him as a MID3 if he can get 70+ minutes, with upside for more depending on how he’s utilized going forward.
Sergio Reguilon || Manchester United (Defender) || 35% Rostered
No one is looking at Manchester United defenders right now and licking there lips, for good reason. But, Reguilon has proven he has fantasy value when he starts. We aren’t sure what his status is injury-wise, but with an international break approaching for him to get healthy, he shouldn’t miss more than a game if it’s a small injury.
Recent rumors suggest Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia should return around the same time, but they won’t be returning to training for at least a few weeks. Some good matchups are on the horizon for United as well.
Next 5 matches: BRF, @SHU, MCI, @FUL, LUT
The Claim: 0-5% of your FAB, 5th spot rolling waiver
Reguilon is a short-medium term play, so tier your bid according to team need. If you can afford for him to sit on your bench this upcoming week, then you might be able to bid a few more than someone who needs him this week (in case you have to drop him should he be out). Monitor his status for GW8, since the waiver wire should run on Wednesday at the earliest this week after the Tuesday match.
Armando Broja || Chelsea (Forward) || 12% Rostered
You’ll probably see Broja on everyone’s waiver wire list, which is funny because Chelsea haven’t exactly fallen into goals during their matches this year. Regardless, they’re top 10 in chance creation/opportunity; one of Jackson’s biggest flaws is his ability to finish those chances. We did see Broja miss an easy chance, but he ultimately got on the scoresheet. The latter may be all that’s required to make the Chelsea weekly starting XI, as it’s better than anyone else has been able to muster up top. He’s a punt play, and has a somewhat mediocre schedule approaching.
Next 5 matches: @BUR, ARS, BRF, @TOT, MCI
The Claim: 0-5% of your FAB, 6th spot rolling waiver
Like mentioned before, his schedule isn’t great so I’m not breaking the bank here. His goal was pretty flukey, and his biggest appeal is that he’s “better than the rest [for now].” Broja is not playing a full 90 mins every week and will be a temporary play (if that) so don’t overinvest.
Ones to Watchlist:
These players are currently on the fringe of breaking into the starting XI, and could be brought in cheaply (hopefully free) if you have the bench space. If you don’t already have a few injured guys/punts on your bench, they’re decent bets going forward.
- Luis Sinisterra (6%): subbed in the 60th for Tavernier and grabbed 6 ghost points. Mostly defensive actions, but worth a punt in case he strings together some starts. Bournemouth still trying to assemble their best starting XI.
- Elliot Anderson (28%): Joelinton (hamstring), Elliot should take on the box-to-box role in his absence.
- Amadou Onana (28%): Underrated #8 who’s better in real life than for fantasy. Still worth an add if you need a stable producer during injuries. Averages 3.36 SCA per 90 minutes, wedged between Mathias Jensen and Douglas Luiz in that measure.
- Nicolas Dominguez (3%): We’ve only got two weeks’ worth of Fantrax data, but early signs are promising. You don’t usually have time to wait with new transfers when they score well this early. Good matchups against Palace and Luton upcoming, so grab him and hope the injury isn’t serious enough to keep him out past the international break.